Merry Christmas

Doesn't get more American than that!

My analysis of Warren Buffet's article, if I may

If you guys remember the 10/17/08 New York Times article by Buffet, I would like to comment on some things and why I think its partly right and partly wrong. 

In the beginning, Buffet talks about how the economic headlines will be worse but he is buying now. I assume that Buffet's logic was that the market has already priced in horrible economic headlines which I agree with, however, the fact is the market simply does not know HOW bad its going to be therefore it can't possibly be priced in completely. The part I agree with Buffet is that in 5-10 years from now(the horizon he gave), our economy will be in much better shape. I agree with him on this count because I think we will hit rock bottom in about 2 to 3 years and so theres nothing but up after that. Buffet also said this about where his money is,

"in which I previously owned nothing but United States government bonds. (This description leaves aside my Berkshire Hathaway holdings, which are all committed to philanthropy.) If prices keep looking attractive, my non-Berkshire net worth will soon be 100 percent in United States equities." 

He is definitely doing the right thing pulling out of US bonds because if that thing is not a bubble, I don't know what is. I don't know if Buffet also thinks its a bubble but US equities will definitely be better than US bonds. US bonds are like dynamites now, you know its gonna blow up but you just don't know when. Another quote from the article:

"Let me be clear on one point: I can’t predict the short-term movements of the stock market. I haven’t the faintest idea as to whether stocks will be higher or lower a month — or a year — from now. What is likely, however, is that the market will move higher, perhaps substantially so, well before either sentiment or the economy turns up. So if you wait for the robins, spring will be over."

This statement in my opinion is 100% correct, however, an average Joe just might read this differently than how its intended to be read. Buffet clearly states that he does not know the short-term movement of the market and so this tells me that he is not all in probably not even close to all in. He is buying now simply because he does not want to play the fools game of bottom chasing. The bottom imho is not even close though. 

Over the long term, the stock market news will be good. In the 20th century, the United States endured two world wars and other traumatic and expensive military conflicts; the Depression; a dozen or so recessions and financial panics; oil shocks; a flu epidemic; and the resignation of a disgraced president. Yet the Dow rose from 66 to 11,497

 We did overcome all those situations but none of those times were we so broke(other than the depression). The past 20 years of US economy has been a fantasy land for Americans and the government helped the people to believe that American Dream = Buying things we can't afford(which is the ugly beauty). While we're still on this topic, let me point out to you why the great depression occurred. Well a lot of things contributed to it but what really ignited the flame was when Hoover came in and disrupted the free market imo. Let me quote something from wikipedia about the causes of the great depression:

'The even larger question is whether it was largely a failure on the part of free markets or largely a failure on the part of governments to curtail widespread bank failures, the resulting panics, and reduction in the money supply. Those who believe in a large role for the state in the economy believe it was mostly a failure of the free markets and those who believe in free markets believe it was mostly a failure of government that compounded the problem." 

Honestly, I think the depression was inevitable then just like how its inevitable now but the government did make it worse by interrupting the free market ideology. Depression was inevitable 4 months ago but the government just made it worse by pumping in so much money. Its gonna be inflationary instead of deflationary. The governemts investment now will not be a winning one because Americans have no savings to pay off their debt let alone borrow more money to buy shit. Isn't it crazy that China is freer than the US in terms of business economy. 

"Today people who hold cash equivalents feel comfortable. They shouldn’t. They have opted for a terrible long-term asset, one that pays virtually nothing and is certain to depreciate in value. Indeed, the policies that government will follow in its efforts to alleviate the current crisis will probably prove inflationary and therefore accelerate declines in the real value of cash accounts"

Again Buffet is dead right. Cash has no intrinsic value to start off with and when the policies prove to be inflationary, dollar will have very little value. US is going to have some sort of industrial revolution to make money again. Maybe even a tech export revolution because one thing i do believe is that American are innovative especially when it comes to products. If this happens, you bet your ass I'm getting into factories. I'm even contemplating right now if I should invest in real estate heavily speculating on the second industrial revolution. I can what I like to call double profit. Lastly, 

"I don’t like to opine on the stock market, and again I emphasize that I have no idea what the market will do in the short term. Nevertheless, I’ll follow the lead of a restaurant that opened in an empty bank building and then advertised: “Put your mouth where your money was.” Today my money and my mouth both say equities."

Today MY money and MY mouth are both saying gold/ foreign currencies. There is really one thing I don't agree with Buffet on this particular article and its timing. I think right now we have to fear because investors are not fearful enough and when investors are truly fearful, that's when I am gonna get greedy as far US equities go.   

 

Consumerism is dead

And i plan to capitalize on it. I am going through and reading the business models and the balance sheets of retailers so I can correctly short the retailers in trouble. The fact is Americans are broke. Americans will not be able to spend lavishly and so the era of squandering is over. Here are the characteristcs of bad retailers:

1.) does most or all business in America (the combination of weak dollar and broke Americans will kill them)

2.) Leveraged retailers = fucked

3.) Sells luxury items rather than necessities( no disposable income)

4.) Not the best of the breed, has strong competition 

Macy's- I would be so surprise if they don't go bankrupted, so leveraged. Horrendous balance sheet- something like $9 billion in debt        

Circuit City fits all these characteristics perfectly and guess what? Chapter 11

I'm also looking into companies that have high exposure in the subprime credit card loans. I wouldn't be surprised if the headline in the near future reads "Credit card default crisis".    

Capital One(example: gave my sister a line of credit who has no history of any credit what so ever)

Give me some names that fit these characteristics, I need help guys. 

asset bubble and meltdown summary

as informative as herng's seminars can be, usually we are somehow intoxicated and he may or may not skip out on information that may be vital to fully understanding why the US is in the position that it is in now. for the willing, here is a relatively short summary (as in-depth as a short summary can be for this topic) written by probably the smartest professor i've ever had, lewis spellman. the dude has mad credentials (tom knows) and i get the feeling he's a professor cause he's already loaded.

Asset Bubble and Meltdown Summary (click)

maybe the last few points are a little more subjective, but the rest is pretty good. you can kind of get a sense of how he feels about the situation; he's a cynical and sarcastic guy. but it's definitely a good starting point for understanding where we stand.

America!

Here's a great video to accompany Herng's weeded out rant blasting America.

For the record, I love America and the CWG that populate it.

My next big move: Short the greenback

As Americans, you guys will not like what I am about to talk about in this entry. I don't care how resilient US has been. I do not care how great you think the ideology of US is. You may strongly disagree with me but i'm going to say it, Dollar will lose its seat as the standard world currency. Additionally, US will NOT be the world power in a few years. I am going to confidently say that if you feel bullish about the US economy now, you are just hoping. I gurantee you don't even know why you are bullish other than the fact that its America. I know this because I realized that the reason i was bullish for a short while was because of hope. The reason why my instinct was telling me that US will be fine is because of bias. We need not to be bias but rather try to take the facts in straight.  It is what it is and the IT here is that we are broke as fuck. Paulson and Bernanke are idiots just like Alan Greenspan. How in the world does it make sense to reflate a bubble. I understand that we faced a serious credit crisis and the government was desperate to do anything but the truth is credit is created by saving not leveraging. We obviously have chose to print our way out of the crisis but this will only create hyper inflation. For those of who are still thinking, "i don't know, its still the US", try to think of one reason why you think US will be fine. I bet you can't because there is none other than " its still the US" which is a statement that doesnt even make sense. Its like Tyson becoming a vegetable and you think he can still kick your ass because he's Tyson. The fundamental has changed so comparing the past and the present US economic situation is like comparing gold and shit, theres nothing to compare. We are going to have to suffer the consequences of spending trillions of borrowed money and its inevitable. Dollar is NOT the flight to quality and the people who think that dollar is in a better situation then other currencies are all retards. 

In conclusion, dollar fall is inevitable and the standard of living will dratically drop in the US. For those of you doubting me,, I hope you guys are right but please be careful. My plan now is to have minimal exposure to the US market and look into foreign markets. Commodities especially gold is the only thing I am bullish on. Of course I am selling the dollar against the Yen, euro, and the Korean Won.      

PS: I want to share an analogy. There are 5 Asians and 1 American on an island. Each of the Asians were assigned a job  wether its hunting or fishing or gathering firewood. The American was assigned the job of eating. Everyday the Asians will prepare a feast for the Americans to eat and the American left just enough crumbs for the Asians to eat so they can continue to work everyday. A typical modern economist would think that America is a vital key to the "economy" on this island because he provides jobs. The reality is, one day the 5 asians will finally realize that if they just kill the American off, they will have a better standard of living..... 

Things i'm bullish on....gold

I'm in a dilema, do I go with my instincts or the current economic data. My guts are telling me that we are going to see a sharp temporarily economic reversal due to all the money we are injecting into the economy. However, logically we are digging ourselves a grave imo. The market turnmoil is largely due to all the deleveraging going on in our economy. Now, the Government is encounraging more lending so we can build a phony economy again? I understand that the government is doing whatever neccessary to ease the pain, however, maybe the consequence of the massive leveraging is perhaps an inevitable depression. One of the biggest reasons why America was able to flourish in the "roaring 90s"(it was really the souring 90s) was because the fed created cheap money and so the banks felt it was ok to lend to unqualified individuals. Most Americans from middle to upper class were able to borrow on command. This mixed with the mindset that asset class will never go down especially real estate created a drug called leveraging. A Mexican strawberry picker in California(i'm not racist, this is a real example I read in a article) who makes $14,000 was able to borrow $400,000 with no down payment to buy a house. Just insane. Now that our economy is truely suffering a withdraw, I don't know if the banks will go down the same path again. I would imagine that the banks will never be so linient when it comes to lending again and so our economy will not likely be able to ROAR. Another key thing to focus on is our consumption level. We have been consuming 70% of the world goods(its science) and it is not an overstatement to say that we are a pure consuming economy. The motto for Americans up until now has been "why spend $100k  when you can leverage up and spend $1M". As the banks get stricter about lending, the consumption level has to go down by default. Last but not least, I think the biggest factor that can either positively or negatively effect America is....China. If you are asking yourself where the fuck are we getting all this money for the bailouts, here is your answer, China/printing. If one day we see the headline of the WSJ that reads " China decides to stop lending to the US", wow we are going to see the value of our currency rapidly precipitate. It is very likely that China will boycott US imo. Why? Because China is not doing that well either. 

I'm not 100% bearish, because my guts are telling me that I'm not smart enough to figure any of this out and i am 100% wrong and the US economy is going to roar again. Not to boast but my gut feeling has treated me well in my life and I hope it will once more. 

So whats my longterm strategy admist the dilema? I'm going to have to respect both my instinct and my logic simultaneously. I am long U.S. equity but mostly commodities related securities or the commodities themselves such as gold and short the dollar.

15% US equities non commodities related

15% US equities commodites related

50% commodities themselves(gold, oil)

10% shorting the dollar against won and euro

10% Cash  

P.S. For those of you all in already,  I believe we will rally short-term so be ready to lock in profits.  

                      

Our Country's New Financial Direction

Bernanke's Japanese Edge

Helicopter Ben's entire plan on saving the American economy boils down to one act: Making It Rain.

Which would make us the hoes.

damn this is pretty sick

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=2I0QN-FYkpw

so it failed

no bailout for auto makers... Its gonna be a dreadful day!

Still position trading

If you have noticed, the last hr craziness is not really evident anymore so position trading is not a bad idea. I sold some of the Longs near the peak of the rally yestarday and I am definitely going to gradually sell off all the longs(in my trading account, and tiff's). I will post my trades whenever i am done selling(probably next week) and I will be posting the trades from 12/8/08 to 12/12/08 with it.   

p.s. I hope you guys dollar cost averaged into the commodities stocks like i recommended and enjoyed this gigantic commodities run!!! CHK 58% run in 3 days. UYM 68% in 3 weeks. This market is so gross. We are getting a decade worth of stock performance in a matter of few weeks. 

8 really, really scary predictions

Interesting article....

http://money.cnn.com/galleries/2008/fortune/0812/gallery.market_gurus.fortune/index.html

Andrew - Bill Gross' ideas are in this article lol...

10:07 AM Eastern Time

Market double bottomed and  I just loaded more ammo, if you know what i mean 

I was going to post yestarday

but then i got high,cuz i high, cuz i got high..... JK

I bought DDM QLD UYG SSO in the last hr yestarday intending to sell it when the market rallies. I feel like the market has to go up 5-10% more especially when the Auto bailout news and the details of the stimulus package comes out. BTW, this is called position trading.  

BTW

today is what we call a big short covering day. Stocks with lots of short interests like CTRP and CHK rocketed. 

12/08/08

Nothing but good news and optimism came out today which only meant one thing, a rally. I was already optimistic after the modest rally we had on Friday. Even though it wasn't a huge rally, the fact that the market rallied on a job report like that told me that investors' thought that we were damn near a bottom in the market. Today, I bought into the longs as soon as the market opened and added to my position in the afternoon when the market slightly dipped. It was relatively a smooth day so all my trades were profitable. The market is actually still open as I am typing, I sold all my positions the first half of the last trading hour. Here are the trades:

30 Day Transaction History

• As of 12/06/2008, 3:30 AM

12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -150.000	Price: $34.00	Amount: $5,091.97
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -150.000	Price: $33.60	Amount: $5,031.97
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +55.000	Price: $32.60	Amount: -$1,801.00
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +70.000	Price: $32.60	Amount: -$2,282.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +175.000	Price: $33.1054	Amount: -$5,801.45
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	QLD	PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -125.000	Price: $27.89	Amount: $3,478.23
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	QLD	PROSHARES ULTRA QQQ PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +125.000	Price: $26.89	Amount: -$3,369.25
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	SAA	PROSHARES ULTRA SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -125.000	Price: $21.10	Amount: $2,629.48
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SAA	PROSHARES ULTRA SMALLCAP600 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +125.000	Price: $20.474	Amount: -$2,567.25
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	SDS	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT 500 FD
Margin	Shares: -25.000	Price: $84.19	Amount: $2,096.73
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -200.000	Price: $27.50	Amount: $5,491.96
		Comm: $8.00	Fees: $0.04
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $27.30	Amount: $2,729.98
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $27.30	Amount: $2,721.98
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +125.000	Price: $26.50	Amount: -$3,320.50
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +125.000	Price: $26.9777	Amount: -$3,380.21
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +150.000	Price: $26.7777	Amount: -$4,024.66
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	UCO	PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG
Margin	Shares: -200.000	Price: $15.75	Amount: $3,141.98
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	UCO	PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG
Margin	Shares: -25.000	Price: $15.75	Amount: $393.74
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	UCO	PROSHARES TR II PROSHARES ULTRA DJ AIG
Margin	Shares: +225.000	Price: $15.47	Amount: -$3,488.75
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU SOLD
	UYG	PROSHARES ULTRA FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -500.000	Price: $6.82	Amount: $3,401.98
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008
12/08/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	UYG	PROSHARES ULTRA FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +500.000	Price: $6.56	Amount: -$3,288.00
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/11/2008

Vote please

If you guys want me to keep posting my thought process and my trades, please vote yes. Since most of you guys don't trade, if you don't really care about trading tips(only investing tips) please vote no. I'm doing this so we don't have to waste each others time and so we can be more efficient unlike the great country we live in. To be completely honest, my investment skills has not really been proven because that is more of a longer-term thing. If anything i have been giving terrible investment ideas YTD(to be fair, the best advice was to stay out of the market and not many people followed that). Trading is really all technical, its all about reading the market intraday psychology by applying everything you can lay your hands on(data, news). You don't even have to be early on your decisions because you can chase the rally or chase the dip by shorting. One word my friends, volatility. It can be dangerous but like anything, if you play it right you are going to be the one taking the winning side of the trade. Trading can really be a part time job right now and it can be extremely profitable because of the volatility so do consider. I've made rather significant amounts of money in many different ways in my life and trading is definitely the hardest "easy money" out there.    

12/05/08

After the horrendous jobless claim report i decided to go short because it logically made sense that people will sell into this. I was actually expecting a recapitulation day. I started with financial shorts(skf) and eventually started positions in SDS SCC and SMN(all shorts). The market was really tanking in the beginning and everything looked good until S&P tested a very important support level around 816. It started to bounce back so I decided to lock in some profits for my shorts, in this case i decided to unload SCC only. As we headed to the afternoon, the market made a double bottom pattern which made me nervous so i started to buy longs (DDM, SSO, UYG, UYM) for hedging(by this time i had ridiculous amounts of skf so i had to hedge). Even though the rally didn't make sense because there were no silver linings to be found in any of today's reports, I thought that maybe traders thought the worst has come with the record breaking jobless claim today and everything should be better from now. As we headed to the last hr i had to take huge blows on my shorts SKF(-$2262.92) and SMN SDS(-$1208.99 total). I was not too worried about the loss though because by this time i had lots of Long ETFs stocked up to maybe make up my loss. I sold into the rally towards the end of the trading session.

I lost -$3675.64 on SDS SSO SMN SKF 

I made +$4798.11 on DDM SCC UYG UYM

Netting +$1122.57 total

     

30 Day Transaction History

12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -725.000	Price: $31.45	Amount: $22,809.29
		Comm: $8.00	Fees: $0.04
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -200.000	Price: $28.16	Amount: $5,623.96
		Comm: $8.00	Fees: $0.04
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -95.000	Price: $31.50	Amount: $2,984.48
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $28.1723	Amount: $2,809.21
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -30.000	Price: $31.50	Amount: $944.99
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +550.000	Price: $28.83	Amount: -$15,864.50
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +100.000	Price: $28.83	Amount: -$2,883.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	DDM	PROSHARES ULTRA DOW 30 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +350.000	Price: $30.2054	Amount: -$10,579.89
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD EX-DIV DATE 12/11/08RECORD DATE 12/15/08
	FDO	FAMILY DOLLAR STORES INC
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $24.192	Amount: $2,411.18
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD EX-DIV DATE 12/11/08RECORD DATE 12/15/08
	FDO	FAMILY DOLLAR STORES INC
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $23.382	Amount: $2,330.18
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	FDO	FAMILY DOLLAR STORES INC
Margin	Shares: +100.000	Price: $22.726	Amount: -$2,280.60
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	JNJ	JOHNSON & JOHNSON
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $56.2144	Amount: $5,613.40
		Comm: $8.00	Fees: $0.04
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SCC	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT CONSUMER SERVICES
Margin	Shares: -50.000	Price: $143.64	Amount: $7,173.95
		Comm: $8.00	Fees: $0.05
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SCC	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT CONSUMER SERVICES
Margin	Shares: +25.000	Price: $139.90	Amount: -$3,505.50
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SCC	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT CONSUMER SERVICES
Margin	Shares: +25.000	Price: $142.02	Amount: -$3,558.50
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SDS	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT 500 FD
Margin	Shares: -80.000	Price: $92.77	Amount: $7,413.55
		Comm: $8.00	Fees: $0.05
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SDS	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT 500 FD
Margin	Shares: +25.000	Price: $98.86	Amount: -$2,479.50
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SDS	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT 500 FD
Margin	Shares: +55.000	Price: $100.00	Amount: -$5,508.00
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SKF	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -150.000	Price: $130.3805	Amount: $19,565.18
		Comm: $8.00	Fees: $0.10
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SKF	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -125.000	Price: $136.8105	Amount: $17,109.40
		Comm: $8.00	Fees: $0.09
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SKF	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +50.000	Price: $140.64	Amount: -$7,040.00
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SKF	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +75.000	Price: $138.93	Amount: -$10,427.75
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SKF	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +75.000	Price: $143.00	Amount: -$10,733.00
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SKF	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +75.000	Price: $143.05	Amount: -$10,736.75
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SMN	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT BASIC MATERIALS P
Margin	Shares: -75.000	Price: $89.30	Amount: $6,689.46
		Comm: $8.00	Fees: $0.04
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SMN	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT BASIC MATERIALS P
Margin	Shares: +25.000	Price: $95.94	Amount: -$2,406.50
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SMN	PROSHARES ULTRA SHORT BASIC MATERIALS P
Margin	Shares: +50.000	Price: $98.20	Amount: -$4,918.00
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -250.000	Price: $24.9923	Amount: $6,240.04
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -125.000	Price: $22.75	Amount: $2,835.73
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -125.000	Price: $22.1899	Amount: $2,765.72
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $24.9801	Amount: $2,489.99
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $22.4723	Amount: $2,239.21
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +100.000	Price: $23.01	Amount: -$2,309.00
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +150.000	Price: $23.01	Amount: -$3,451.50
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	SSO	PROSHARES ULTRA S&P 500 PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +350.000	Price: $24.3554	Amount: -$8,532.39
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	USO	UNITED STS OIL FD LP UNITS
Margin	Shares: -150.000	Price: $33.374	Amount: $4,998.07
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	USO	UNITED STS OIL FD LP UNITS
Margin	Shares: -50.000	Price: $33.61	Amount: $1,672.49
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	UYG	PROSHARES ULTRA FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: -5000.000	Price: $5.8501	Amount: $29,258.50
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	UYG	PROSHARES ULTRA FINLS PROSHARES
Margin	Shares: +5000.000	Price: $5.2776	Amount: -$26,396.00
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	UYM	PROSHARES ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHAR
Margin	Shares: -1,050.000	Price: $11.66	Amount: $12,242.92
		Fees: $0.08
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	UYM	PROSHARES ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHAR
Margin	Shares: -400.000	Price: $11.6624	Amount: $4,664.93
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	UYM	PROSHARES ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHAR
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $11.66	Amount: $1,165.99
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	UYM	PROSHARES ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHAR
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $11.66	Amount: $1,157.99
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU SOLD
	UYM	PROSHARES ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHAR
Margin	Shares: -100.000	Price: $11.66	Amount: $1,157.99
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	UYM	PROSHARES ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHAR
Margin	Shares: +400.000	Price: $11.27	Amount: -$4,516.00
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	UYM	PROSHARES ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHAR
Margin	Shares: +600.000	Price: $11.27	Amount: -$6,762.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008
12/05/2008	YOU BOUGHT
	UYM	PROSHARES ULTRA BASIC MATERIALS PROSHAR
Margin	Shares: +750.000	Price: $11.3352	Amount: -$8,509.40
		Comm: $8.00
	Settlement Date: 12/10/2008