Tuesday, October 6, 2009

some knowledge to share regarding making monies

but it is about making money and I want to share with you one of the sickest hands i have ever got into. This took place this past weekend at the Mohegan Suns poker room in Connecticut. Game: 2-5 No Limit My stack Size: around 1K I was in the BB(Big Blind) and the player in the Cut Off position(right of the dealer) raises to $35, lets call this guy villain 1. It folds to the SB and this Asian lady in the SB calls the $35, we will call this Asian lady villain 2. I look at Villain 1 and 2's stack size(money in front of them) and they both have over 2k in front of them so we are sitting very deep and I know both of them are action players so I elect to get involved in this pot with Jc6c suited in the BB. Everyone else folds so its a 3 way pot going to the flop. My analysis heading into the Flop: The pot is about 35x3=105+ 25(5 limpers preflop) = $130 which is not too bad to steal but I am aware that there aren't that many flops i am going to be able to lead out betting to steal the pot because Villain 1 and Villain 2 are both very lose and their hand range is basically any 2 suited or connecting and up. However, I also know that both of these players are regulars and they are both thinking gamblers. The FLOP: 5d 5s 7h I basically whiffff. Villain 2 checks in the SB(small blind), I check and Villain 2 makes a pretty standard continuation bet as the original preflop raiser and in position. Villain 1 leads out $80. Villain 2 snap calls which tells me that she has some sort of a draw. Also i have seen Villain 2 call down huge bets with draws many times earlier in the session. Now the pot is $290 and I thought it was pretty much a gift for me to take it down. I know I can at least represent a big overpair like pocket 9s or 10s or maybe a 45 suited or 56 suited if I made a good raise. So I go in the tank and raised it to $200 straight. Very small juicy raise about 2/3 of the pot. The reason why I made such a small raise is to represent a very strong hand like trip 5s and to make it seem like I want callers rather than I'm trying to push you out of this pot. Villain 1 thinks and folds but Villain 2 the asian lady calls. My analysis heading into the turn: The pot is now at $610. I am 90% sure Villain 2 has a hand like 46 or 68 something that gives her an open ended straight draw on the 5 5 7 board. 10% is that she has an absolute monster like 55 or 77 but I highly doubt it because of her snap calls on the flop which is a huge live tell. I don't put her on anything else because she would have folded pretty much anything to my flop raise especially out of position. So now I have her hand range narrowed down to 90%: 64 or 68, 10%: 55 or 77 and maybe a bigger pocket pair but highly doubtful because the way she plays she definitely raises a high pocket pair preflop(I've seen her make it $200 straight preflop with 7s and 8s...). So in my head I know I am continuation betting the turn if a 3, 4, 8, or 9 doesn't come on the turn. The Turn: 10c Villain 2 checks and now I know I have to make a very begging for a call bet and at the same time set myself up for a river bluff in case I get called. The pot is at $610 and I have little over $750 in front of me. I know I can't bet out too big because I need at least $500 behind to make a river shove because I really don't want to showdown with my J6 suited even if I think its good. So I elect to bet $250, about 1/3 of my stack and about 2/5 of the pot. This bet accomplishes two things: 1.) If she goes all in on the top of this please call me bet, she definitely has a monster and I have to fold my Jack high. It is true that she can realize that I'm purposely making it seem like a please call me bet but there is no way she is that caliber. 2) If the River misses her range I can still make a half pot shove (all in) so I don't have to show down my J 6 suited. She thinks for a while and she calls. I definitely expected her to call considering she was getting more than 3 to 1 on her money, $250 to win $860. After villain 2 calls the pot is at $1110. Analysis heading to the River: I put her on either 46 or 68 and as long as the river bricks I am shoving. Pocket 7s are now out of her hand range because she surely would have check raised me on the turn especially with the 1o coming out. So now her hand range is narrowed down to 64, 68, and 55. The River: 10h Pretty much a dream card for me. Misses everything for her but she does the unexpected and shoves all in. Now I am really confused. 55 really? I know it seems like I should have insta-mucked my j high but with $1600 now in the pot i had to give it a thought. I had about $500 in front of me so if I called I would be getting little over 3 to 1 for my money. Plus the fact that I already have about 500 in there. I went through the hand again in my head and I just could not put her on anything but 46, 68, or 55. She never bets anything that has showdown value like ace high or wired pair or even a 5 after running 10s came out. So as long as I am at least 33% sure that my jack high is good I have to call since I am getting more than 3 to 1. I called thinking 66% of the times she has a bluff and FML if she has 55. I called and villain 2 announced "good call I missed" and flipped over 68. I flipped over my J high and she was about to puke, poor lady.

Sunday, October 4, 2009

I'm finally starting to unload

I am starting to take my profits across the board. My holdings: FCX, HOGS, PM, FXI, NEM, RJI, RJA, and RJN. I'm about 20% in equities and 30% in commodities as of today. If I don't update next week, assume that I am almost completely out of my holdings. I think we are pretty due to a correction based on the technical pictures and some fundamental issues. Nearly all the stocks are dancing around at the top of the bollinger band and 4th quarter outlook is rather gloomy. Anyhow, I think its a good idea to either hedge your profits or lock it up as we head into the 4Q. I'll try to keep you guys updated.

P.S. I'm holding onto GLD to hedge my cash postion after I finish unloading.