Thursday, February 12, 2009

Unfortunately our prez doesn't understand econ....

Maybe he skipped economics or something. This stimulus is a joke. It will not do anything and here is why. The main problem with our economy is debt. An average American has around $9000 in credit card debt. We all know that the real estate industry in the US and many other countries need to experience a heck of a contraction because it inflated to a point where no one could afford. Housing needs to come down to a level where people can actually afford to buy, but the problem is too many people invested in real estate(not only did they invest they invested with borrowed money) at the peak or near peak of the housing bubble creating debt instead of profit when they sell their house(They pretty much bought high sold low so the difference becomes debt). Basically, debt is the root of all evil in this case. What America needs is a relieve from heavy tax burden for businesses of all size and middle class citizens. This will create more jobs and relieve some pressure for Americans w/ debt. However there is a catch to this, if they cut tax drastically how are they going to finance all this stimulus and bailouts. Bernanke already said the budget deficit is going to near $2.5 TRILLION after the stimulus. I guess Geithner's gonna book a ticket to my motherland to beg for some dough.
In conclusion, you cannot spend your way into prosperity and you for sure cannot spend what you don't have. Unfortunately, America is going to be guilty on both charges. I am still standing firm on my forecast that we are heading into a inflationary depression. I am pretty sure all the deflating outside of real estate is because of de-leveraging thats been going on.
So what the hell am I doing with my money? Same thing i've been doing since gold was hovering around $780 an O, buying it. Gold is now around $940 an O but I definitely think it will surpass $1100 and more. I come to this conclusion because of both technical and fundamental analysis. The chart is looking beautiful and it just recently hit a technical breakout point around $938 and is still holding on that level firmly w/out selling off. Fundamentally, the demand for gold is going to rocket because people do not know which currency to trust and people will start looking for inflation hedge. GLD will be the holy grail in 2009 my friends.

P.S: I did find a silver lining though: Writedown everything for our grand children to repay

3 comments:

Lewis said...

i'm glad you posted this, and i agree with you.
moving in on GLD soon.
Do you think holding a fertilizer/commodity stock is a good bet?

Lewis said...

maybe a 3 way split between UGL, GLD, and UDN...

Justin said...

i been holdin udn for a while. hasnt done shit for me yet. but thats a long run thing. it will come. USD will go bye bye.